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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."